The Mathematical Power of Optimism

Artist's block and making creative choices

You finally manage to squeeze time out of your busy schedule for gamedev but instead of getting anything done you sit down at your computer and stare blankly at the screen. Why is it that every time you get a moment to make games, making games loses all of its appeal? Your ideas were quite brilliant when you thought of them. What happened? Is this what it feels like to have writer’s block?

Feeling creatively blocked affects every artist throughout their career. These blocks can stack over weeks, months, and even years, leaving a mountain of regret and could-have-beens. Despite the fact that this problem is well documented (especially amongst writers) the solution isn’t so simple, in fact it might not even have one.

The Brain Dump

“Progress, not perfection, is what we should be asking of ourselves.”
- Julia Cameron, The Artist’s Way

If there’s a new beaver dam in your creative river, you might consider a brain dump.

In the Artist’s Way, Julia Cameron recommends a morning ritual she calls morning papers. Each morning you wake up and write down whatever comes to your mind. It doesn’t have to be good because nobody else is going to see what you write. Let your thoughts flow freely.

I’ve been writing every morning for over a year. I’ve found it to be both cathartic and meaningful.

And yet, I still get blocked sometimes.

Analysis Paralysis

“Hesitation—inaction—is just as irrevocable as action.”
Brian Christian, Algorithms to Live By

What if you don’t have a beaver dam in your creative river, in fact, what if you don’t have a river at all. What if it’s a creative ocean. It doesn’t flow in one direction towards a destination, it expands outward in every direction, filling all horizons. When you sit down to be creative, your head about explodes with all the potential.

With so many tasks to work on which one should you chose? What if you dedicate your limited time to the wrong task? How do you know that any of them will pay off anyways?

Upper Confidence Bound

“Whatever you think you can do or believe you can do, begin it. Action has magic, grace, and power in it.”
- Julia Cameron, The Artist’s Way

There is an algorithm in computer science called the Upper Confidence Bound algorithm (UCB). It is a decision-making algorithm designed to help balance choices between a known good outcome, and an unknown, but potentially great outcome. It’s a solution to the explore/exploit tradeoff problem.

I’m not going to describe the algorithm in detail, but in general terms, you assign a potential outcome to each choice. When assigning this outcome, you should be reasonable but also optimistic. Once you’ve assigned an outcome to each choice, you pick the one with the most potential. In other words, you should be optimistic in the face of uncertainty.

Statistically speaking, optimism can give you the best chance of minimizing your regrets.

The Best We Can Do

“We always do the best we can by the light we have to see by.”
Julia Cameron, The Artist’s Way

There is one final thing to keep in mind. Life is not a math problem, or if it is, it’s an intractable one. The variables are always changing, something that works now might not work at all later.

Take courage and be optimistic about your gamedev journey. That optimism will spur you to create, and odds are, you’ll be glad you did.

Thanks for reading,
Ben

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